Fantasy Football 2012 Primer, pt. 3: Quarterbacks

Just as the NFL has become a more pass-happy, quarterback-centric league, quarterbacks in fantasy football have become more of a commodity.  The QB is the one player on your roster who is the likeliest to carry your team to victory in a week, as it isn't rare for the most elite fantasy QBs to give you an average of 25-30 points a week.  This being the case, you'd think that the QB is the most valuable player on your team, and the first position you should fill, right?  Not necessarily.  Let's explore.

*Note: As with all of these entries, my strategies are based on ESPN standard roster formats (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 RB/WR, 1 TE, 1 D/ST, 1 K).  These strategies don't necessarily hold for other formats, but might.  And the link to the cheat sheet again: http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffldraftkit/12/NFLDK2K12_StandCS.pdf?addata=2012=ffldft_chtsht_standpos_xxx

Because of their powerful point production capabilities (and my awesome alliteration), top-level QBs have become highly valuable commodities.  More and more offenses are employing pass-heavy gameplans, and the more you put the ball in the quarterback's hands, the more points he is likely to put up.

I've always been against the idea of drafting a QB early, but this year is different.  I think that there are five guys worth consideration in the first two rounds this year (the top 5 guys on the ESPN cheat sheet): Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Stafford, and Newton.  It helps that the RB and WR positions don't feel quite as deep as they've been in the past, but these five guys put up monster numbers last year, and there's nothing that suggests they won't do the same again.

Let's look at Newton, because he's an interesting case.  In most standard format drafts, Newton went undrafted last year.  Expectations were low for the #1 overall pick in the draft, as many felt his talents were raw and undeveloped.  Newton broke out in a big way and has already become one of the most feared offensive players in the league.  And then what about my boy Stafford?  The Lions team broke out last year, with Stafford and Megatron carrying the offense, overcoming what little running game they had.  Stafford was a mid-round pick last year, as a backup QB for most teams.

Back to the point.  The reason I've avoided drafting a QB early in past years was simply to increase my depth at RB and WR first.  Those positions are even more flaky than the QB, and making the right early and mid-round picks for them can be the key to getting your fantasy team through the season.  On a standard roster, there are 5 RBs and WRs in play, whereas there is just one QB.  I tend to like my chances of winning through the stable of 5, rather than relying too much on just one man.

So what should you do?  Well, the answer should always be "whatever you want to", but here's my advice: if you want one of the top three or top five guys, go get him; he's not gonna last very long.  If you think another guy has that kinda value, like maybe Michael Vick, feel free to reach a bit for him too.  Whatever the case, know who you want before you go into your draft, and if they're not there when it's your turn to pick, wait for the next guy you want.  Sounds simple but in the heat of the draft, we can occasionally fall victim to drafting trends (e.g. when five people before you take running backs, you end up wanting to do the same).

Next time, we start the good stuff: sleepers!  I'll share some small opinions on a few guys I really like but for the most part, it'll just be a list up for your own interpretation.  See ya then!