Friday, August 3, 2012

Fantasy Football 2012 Primer, pt. 1: Initial Impressions

With August now upon us and no lockout threatening the season this year, we get to comfortably sit back and anticipate the coming of the football season.  Normally, it seems like football finally arrives after a slow sports summer, but this summer wasn't too bad.  In a summer where we got to see Spain win the Euros (again), all sorts of surprise teams in baseball (I'm looking at you, Pirates and Nationals), Roger Federer reclaiming his throne, Tiger Woods gradually returning to form, and the Olympics, sports haven't been all that bad.

But now it's time to move on to football and America's favorite game, fantasy football.  For the next month, I will be posting entries here and there trying to help get everyone ready for the fantasy football season.  I am certainly no professional at this, but I get enough content thrown into my brain to make some decent estimations.  Throughout this primer, I will be right and I will be wrong and that, my friends, is the beauty of fantasy football.

Now, I will warn you from the start: a lot of my analysis will be based off of ESPN's rankings and points system.  It's the system I've played in for years, and the one I know best.  The resources are pretty easy to access and the site provides enough free analysis for someone like me to feel smarter.  That all said, let's get started.

Link to ESPN's positional cheat sheet:
http://games-ak.espn.go.com/s/ffldraftkit/12/NFLDK2K12_StandCS.pdf?addata=2012=ffldft_chtsht_standpos_xxx

Part 1: Initial Impressions

This first entry is going to be simple.  I am going to look at ESPN's cheat sheets, including their top 300 players and top players by position, and I'm just going to list some of the things that immediately come to mind.  Onward!

1. This year's class of top running backs is really shallow.  I agree that Foster, Rice, and McCoy should be the top three (in that order), but beyond those three guys, who can I feel comfortable with?  Jones-Drew has been a workhorse the past few years and plays in a bad offense, Chris Johnson is coming off a bad year where he slumped, and next up is the oft-injured Ryan Mathews?  If I can't get any of the top three backs, I may seriously have to consider getting a quarterback in the first round.  So much for the years when I'd take my first quarterback in the 10th round.

2. That said, I still wouldn't mind waiting on a quarterback.  Getting a top 10 QB would be nice but if not, I wouldn't mind waiting til the 20th guy (Carson Palmer) or even the 21st (Sam Bradford).

3. Megatron is the #1 receiver!  You bet he is.

4. Gronkowski and Graham are rated really high.  Higher than I remember seeing any tight ends in my time in fantasy.  I got Graham repeatedly in late rounds in my drafts last year.  It's not to say I'll find another Jimmy Graham in the late rounds this year, but tight ends and quarterbacks have always seemed too unpredictable for me to spend early picks on them.  I suppose I should just stick with my usual strategy: if an elite QB or TE doesn't fall in my lap early, build my RB/WR stable and get the other positions later.

Next time, I address the all-important Tim Tebow question, as it relates to the Jets and to fantasy football.  See you then!

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