It's a bit amazing, but the start of the 2012 NBA season is right around the corner. As confident as I was that the owners and players would reach a resolution, I thought they'd have to lose a season (and, consequently, a ton of money) before they really figured it out. I'm certainly not complaining, as we get to celebrate the return of the NBA on Christmas Day this year.
If you keep up with the league, you're certainly aware of the big moves that may change the landscape of the league this year. Chris Paul is in LA with Blake Griffin, the Mavericks lost one big piece (Tyson Chandler to NY) and gained another (Lamar Odom from LA), and some solid role players have moved to other places. The shortened, truncated season provides some extra unpredictability, but I'm gonna give you a list of 5 predictions I have for this year's season; some bold, some not.
1) Miami Heat will win the championship: I've never been one for picking the heavy favorite, but beyond Oklahoma City, I just don't see anyone else who can compete. Dallas is still dangerous but weaker than last year, Chicago doesn't have quite enough talent yet, and the LA teams are each missing something. Chris Paul going to the Clippers is one of the best things that could happen to the Heat; they aren't the biggest story around anymore, and that means they can just shut up and play some basketball.
2) Jimmer Fredette will win Rookie of the Year: I understand that he'll start off by coming off of the bench, but his talent for putting up points will win him some more minutes as the season wears on. The Kings are young and rebuilding, and though he won't be their top scorer, I think that Jimmer is the leader that the Kings are looking for.
3) Oklahoma City Thunder will win the West: Again, I'm going with the most favored team, but I just don't see another team that can compete. The Clippers need more time, the Lakers need more bodies, and the Spurs and Mavericks need more youth. The Memphis Grizzlies struck me as possible competitors for the Thunder, but they've lost Darrell Arthur (their best player off of the bench) for the season. Anyway, my next prediction, relative to the Thunder...
4) Kevin Durant will be the NBA MVP: This kid is a ridiculous talent. Because of his stellar shooting ability and length, there might not be a harder player in the league to defend right now than Kevin Durant. He won't put up the all-around numbers that LeBron will, but he and his supporting cast (including Russell Westbrook and James Harden) will carry this team to the best regular-season record in the West. That achievement, along with his well-mannered, hard-working nature, will help him to earn the most votes for his first MVP award.
5) Dwight Howard will end up in... LA: I know that the latest talk this offseason involved Howard possibly moving to New Jersey/Brooklyn to play with Deron Williams, but as the season wears on, I see the Lakers making a desperation move to land Howard, perhaps a week or so before the trade deadline. The Clippers will have a significantly better record than the Lakers at this point, and the Lakers brass will not sit around and let all of the attention in the city stay with the Clippers. They will make a marquee move of their own, in an attempt to start building for the future.
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