Before we get into it, let's make one thing clear. The way that the new collective bargaining agreement is structured in the NFL, rookies get paid much less than they did just a few years ago. This means that teams aren't as heavily invested in them to start out, which makes the player more expendable or tradeable. This also makes the draft pick itself more tradeable.
How about with the Indianapolis Colts? I don't know what all of the hoopla is about. Draft Luck, and sit him behind Manning for 2-3 years. I understand he's the #1 overall pick, but I would think that being a successful, Super Bowl-winning NFL quarterback would be his top priority. Why not sit behind one of the greatest QBs ever and learn the game from him before you get thrown into the fray? Need I remind everyone about the Aaron Rodgers story? Considered a top-10 talent in the draft he entered in (and falling into the 20's simply due to lack of need from other teams), Rodgers sat behind Brett Favre for three years before he became the starter in Green Bay. And does anyone really think that when the Colts think it's Luck's time, Manning will be as whiny as Favre about leaving? I didn't think so.
Maybe Luck will get drafted by the St. Louis Rams, who still have a shot at earning the #1 overall pick. It would be completely unfair (and shortsighted, in my opinion) to give up on Sam Bradford at this point, so if the Rams earn the #1 pick, they'll trade it. Like I mentioned in the preface, because of the new rookie salary cap, high draft picks are much easier to trade away now, as teams don't have to worry about devoting huge sums of money to unknown commodities. Think of the massive haul that the Rams could get for Luck; if they trade with a team that needs a franchise quarterback, they could receive enough picks and pieces to become contenders as soon as next year. Bradford needs some help around him; the Rams can use Luck to fill in those holes.
So, who needs a franchise quarterback? When it comes down to it, most of the teams in the NFL would love to have a shot at Luck. He could be the new franchise quarterback (the Redskins, the Browns), the backup to an aging franchise quarterback (the Saints, the Patriots), or brought in to compete with another young quarterback for the starting job (the Jaguars, the... Broncos? Tebow?). There's certainly a lot of pressure on the kid. I've heard several people calling him the best quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning. All I hope is that wherever he ends up, he succeeds.
That said, when this sort of thing happens, I get really excited, because it can instantly change the landscape of the NFL. To prove it, I always love to ask this question: what if, years ago, the Colts had selected Ryan Leaf #1 overall, meaning that Peyton Manning landed in San Diego? How would that have affected Drew Brees (former Chargers QB) and Philip Rivers? Where would the Colts be now?... See, I told you this draft will be fun.
In the end, if the Colts get the #1 pick, I see them drafting Luck and holding him on the roster until Manning is declining or done. If the Rams get the pick, they'll trade him for a bevy of assets, and I think the Redskins will be the team to make the trade.
I think it's almost certain that if the Rams get the number one overall pick they will NOT choose Andrew Luck. Since the Rams drafted Sam Bradford under the old CBA, they owe him a ton of guaranteed money and what not so the organization won't give up on him this early. The new rookie scale and CBA while making it financially safe for any team to draft in the top five picks, it still is incredibly difficult to trade the top pick away. A team would probably have to give the Rams two first round picks and two second round picks (I'm not sure what the value chart says the cost would be to move from 4 or 5 to 1). I think Cleveland might have the necessary trade resources but that's a lot to give up for a team that needs a lot of players throughout the draft. I think the Rams if they get the first pick should spend it on Matt Kalil out of USC because he's going to be a stud at the NFL level and the Rams desperately need reinforcements on the O-line despite drafting Jason Smith early on a few years back. He's likely gone by the time they pick if they move down even a little bit.
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