The Andrew Luck Sweepstakes

Oh Andrew.  You look so happy right now.  You won't be that happy when you're getting sacked in the NFL.  That said, where will you end up?  Where do you want to end up?  Let's take a look at the possibilities, and the impact you could have on the landscape of the NFL as a whole.

Before we get into it, let's make one thing clear.  The way that the new collective bargaining agreement is structured in the NFL, rookies get paid much less than they did just a few years ago.  This means that teams aren't as heavily invested in them to start out, which makes the player more expendable or tradeable.  This also makes the draft pick itself more tradeable.

How about with the Indianapolis Colts?  I don't know what all of the hoopla is about.  Draft Luck, and sit him behind Manning for 2-3 years.  I understand he's the #1 overall pick, but I would think that being a successful, Super Bowl-winning NFL quarterback would be his top priority.  Why not sit behind one of the greatest QBs ever and learn the game from him before you get thrown into the fray?  Need I remind everyone about the Aaron Rodgers story?  Considered a top-10 talent in the draft he entered in (and falling into the 20's simply due to lack of need from other teams), Rodgers sat behind Brett Favre for three years before he became the starter in Green Bay.  And does anyone really think that when the Colts think it's Luck's time, Manning will be as whiny as Favre about leaving?  I didn't think so.

Maybe Luck will get drafted by the St. Louis Rams, who still have a shot at earning the #1 overall pick.  It would be completely unfair (and shortsighted, in my opinion) to give up on Sam Bradford at this point, so if the Rams earn the #1 pick, they'll trade it.  Like I mentioned in the preface, because of the new rookie salary cap, high draft picks are much easier to trade away now, as teams don't have to worry about devoting huge sums of money to unknown commodities.  Think of the massive haul that the Rams could get for Luck; if they trade with a team that needs a franchise quarterback, they could receive enough picks and pieces to become contenders as soon as next year.  Bradford needs some help around him; the Rams can use Luck to fill in those holes.

So, who needs a franchise quarterback?  When it comes down to it, most of the teams in the NFL would love to have a shot at Luck.  He could be the new franchise quarterback (the Redskins, the Browns), the backup to an aging franchise quarterback (the Saints, the Patriots), or brought in to compete with another young quarterback for the starting job (the Jaguars, the... Broncos?  Tebow?).  There's certainly a lot of pressure on the kid.  I've heard several people calling him the best quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning.  All I hope is that wherever he ends up, he succeeds.

That said, when this sort of thing happens, I get really excited, because it can instantly change the landscape of the NFL.  To prove it, I always love to ask this question: what if, years ago, the Colts had selected Ryan Leaf #1 overall, meaning that Peyton Manning landed in San Diego?  How would that have affected Drew Brees (former Chargers QB) and Philip Rivers?  Where would the Colts be now?... See, I told you this draft will be fun.

In the end, if the Colts get the #1 pick, I see them drafting Luck and holding him on the roster until Manning is declining or done.  If the Rams get the pick, they'll trade him for a bevy of assets, and I think the Redskins will be the team to make the trade.

Handel's Messiah

It's the most wonderful time of year.  We drive down the street at night and see Christmas lights on display.  We go to our favorite stores and see green and red everywhere.  We walk through the mall and see the large man in the red suit, bring smiles to the faces of children.  The holidays are a beautiful time for all of the joy that we get to see, and the joy that we experience for ourselves.  But we haven't forgotten about what Christmas is really about, right?  In case you need a reminder...



Oh Linus, you always cut me right to the core.  So we all have our own holiday traditions, right?  Eating a nice Christmas dinner, going to the church as a family on Christmas Eve, opening presents at some ridiculous hour in the early morning.  My family has some things like that, but there's one tradition in particular that we have that I didn't learn to appreciate until I became an adult: Handel's Messiah.

Ever since my dad finished his PhD and started working as a full-time music professor, he's been the conductor for a local rendition of Handel's Messiah in almost every year he's worked.  That means that I've had the privilege (or obligation when I was younger) of hearing Handel's Messiah performed live every year for the majority of my life.  No, it's not some achievement I want to put on my wall, but it's certainly a strong reflection of what my family is about.  Remember, family is the base of Christmas tradition.

My family is about music.  My dad is a professor, my mom is a former piano teacher, my sister studied piano through high school and led an acapella group in college, and I graduated from UVA with a music major.  Music has always been a root of my family's Christmas tradition; when we're in a car together there will always be Christmas music on the radio.

My family is about spirituality.  Sure, we all practice our faith in different ways, but spirituality is a root of our family, and certainly a root of our Christmas tradition.  Though I go to a different church than my parents, I get excused from playing the organ at the 11pm service for my church every year, so I can join my family at my dad's church, which is also my old home church.

Combine those two things (not that my family isn't about more), and anyone in my family will tell you that one of the greatest works in music history (and some of our favorite Christmas music) is Handel's Messiah.  Only since I've gotten older have I realized how beautifully the scripture has been applied to music.  Just look at some of the passage that Linus shares with us above.

Luke 2:13-14: "Suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host, praising God and saying glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will towards men."

If you're familiar with the Messiah, you'll know that the Soprano soloist sings verse 13, and then the choir comes in loud and strong for verse 14 (starting at "glory to God").  This is just one example of many in the Messiah where Handel has captured the spirit of the scripture in music.  Another one of my favorite examples comes from later in the Messiah, and later in the New Testament:

1 Corinthians 15:52: "In a moment, in the twinkling of an eye, at the last trump: for the trumpet shall sound, and the dead will be raised incorruptible, and we shall be changed."

This is one of the few passages in the Messiah that features the trumpet, and in the version that my dad usually prepares (he excludes some of the parts, for time's sake), the bass soloist singing these words, along with the spirited trumpet, are the last things we hear before the finale:

Revelation 5:12: "... Worthy is the Lamb that was slain to receive power, and riches, and wisdom, and strength, and honour, and glory, and blessing."

If you've never heard the Messiah, go listen to some of it.  It does such a wonderful job of taking parts from the poetic King James translation and turning them into beautiful works of music, all weaving into the story of the impact of Jesus, the real reason we have Christmas.  One final note from here: many of you are probably familiar with the Hallelujah chorus, but do you know what the other words in the piece are?  Take a look:

Hallelujah! For the God omnipotent reigneth.  The kingdom of this world is become the kingdom of our Lord and of his Christ.  He shall reign forever.  King of kings and lord of lords, and he shall reign forever.

Merry Christmas, everyone!

NBA Predictions

It's a bit amazing, but the start of the 2012 NBA season is right around the corner.  As confident as I was that the owners and players would reach a resolution, I thought they'd have to lose a season (and, consequently, a ton of money) before they really figured it out.  I'm certainly not complaining, as we get to celebrate the return of the NBA on Christmas Day this year.

If you keep up with the league, you're certainly aware of the big moves that may change the landscape of the league this year.  Chris Paul is in LA with Blake Griffin, the Mavericks lost one big piece (Tyson Chandler to NY) and gained another (Lamar Odom from LA), and some solid role players have moved to other places.  The shortened, truncated season provides some extra unpredictability, but I'm gonna give you a list of 5 predictions I have for this year's season; some bold, some not.

1) Miami Heat will win the championship: I've never been one for picking the heavy favorite, but beyond Oklahoma City, I just don't see anyone else who can compete.  Dallas is still dangerous but weaker than last year, Chicago doesn't have quite enough talent yet, and the LA teams are each missing something.  Chris Paul going to the Clippers is one of the best things that could happen to the Heat; they aren't the biggest story around anymore, and that means they can just shut up and play some basketball.

2) Jimmer Fredette will win Rookie of the Year: I understand that he'll start off by coming off of the bench, but his talent for putting up points will win him some more minutes as the season wears on.  The Kings are young and rebuilding, and though he won't be their top scorer, I think that Jimmer is the leader that the Kings are looking for.

3) Oklahoma City Thunder will win the West: Again, I'm going with the most favored team, but I just don't see another team that can compete.  The Clippers need more time, the Lakers need more bodies, and the Spurs and Mavericks need more youth.  The Memphis Grizzlies struck me as possible competitors for the Thunder, but they've lost Darrell Arthur (their best player off of the bench) for the season.  Anyway, my next prediction, relative to the Thunder...

4) Kevin Durant will be the NBA MVP: This kid is a ridiculous talent.  Because of his stellar shooting ability and length, there might not be a harder player in the league to defend right now than Kevin Durant.  He won't put up the all-around numbers that LeBron will, but he and his supporting cast (including Russell Westbrook and James Harden) will carry this team to the best regular-season record in the West.  That achievement, along with his well-mannered, hard-working nature, will help him to earn the most votes for his first MVP award.

5) Dwight Howard will end up in... LA: I know that the latest talk this offseason involved Howard possibly moving to New Jersey/Brooklyn to play with Deron Williams, but as the season wears on, I see the Lakers making a desperation move to land Howard, perhaps a week or so before the trade deadline.  The Clippers will have a significantly better record than the Lakers at this point, and the Lakers brass will not sit around and let all of the attention in the city stay with the Clippers.  They will make a marquee move of their own, in an attempt to start building for the future.

The NFL Playoff Picture

Hello everyone! I’m glad that you’re joining me here on my new blog. Let’s get right into it and talk some NFL.

Week 15 has come and gone, and now with two weeks left, the playoff picture is materializing. Using ESPN.com’s Playoff Machine (found at http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine), I’ve made my predictions for the remaining two weeks of the season, and here are my playoff teams and seeding:

AFC:
1. Patriots
2. Ravens
3. Texans
4. Broncos
5. Steelers
6. Jets

NFC: 
1. Packers
2. 49ers
3. Saints
4. Giants
5. Falcons
6. Lions

I think it’s worth noting the race for the #6 seed on both sides. The way that I have the games unfolding, the Jets and Chargers finish 9-7, and the Jets own the tiebreaker. It’ll be a bit easier for the Jets to get there if they can beat the Giants next week, but I have the Giants recovering from their poor loss to the Redskins this week and winning that game. On the other side, the Lions. The Lions??? Yes indeed! Speaking as a fan who has stuck with the team since the mid ‘90’s, it is exciting to see the Lions back in contention. I actually have them losing their last two games of the season (Chargers, Packers) and finishing at 9-7, along with the Cowboys. Luckily, the tiebreaker goes to Detroit.

If the playoffs include these twelve teams, here are some things I think we should watch out for:

1) Tebow-mania: Will the madness continue through the playoffs? I found it laughable that several ESPN analysts wanted the Patriots to “end the madness” this past week. OK, so the Patriots took it to the Broncos.  Did that really stop anything? NO.  These are the Patriots.  We wouldn't be surprised if they beat anybody like they beat the Broncos this past week.  We will not stop talking about Tebow until the Broncos are out. If the Broncos defense can get back to playing like a top 5 defense, anything can happen. Tebow will never be Brady or Manning or Rodgers, but can he win games? Yep.

2) New York Giants: Despite their inconsistent play throughout, well, basically every season I can remember, the Giants are always a playoff presence. It’s simple: when you can run the ball and rush the passer like the Giants can, you can beat anybody. And hey, let’s not forget about Eli Manning. He has as many Super Bowl rings as Rodgers and Brees, you know, and went through Brady to get it.

3) The formerly undefeated Green Bay Packers: Speaking of Rodgers, Green Bay finally lost a game. Who were they playing this week? Kansas City?? Wow. Look, there’s no reason to overreact. I’m a big proponent of the idea that a meaningless loss is a good thing. In the big picture, this is meaningless: Green Bay will maintain hold of the #1 seed in the NFC. This loss helps the team re-focus on the true task at hand, winning a second straight Super Bowl, and working out the kinks before that first playoff game. This loss positions the Packers to make a poised run to another Super Bowl.

Thanks for tuning in. Since things are just starting up, look for another new entry soon!